Friday, July 06, 2007

And Pigs Aren’t Flying, Either

I’ve often said that paid political pundits are no better at guessing the future than those of us who share our opinions gratis. And certainly this proves it. As Media Matters recalls,
Before the November 2006 midterm elections, NBC News political director Chuck Todd predicted several times that if the Democrats won “control of Congress” and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) became speaker of the House, then President Bush’s “approval rating will be over 50 percent by the Fourth of July next year.” In fact, as of July 4, 2007, Bush’s approval ratings are far below 50 percent. Indeed, a recent analysis by the weblog of national polls conducted between June 11 and June 28 placed Bush’s average approval rating at 30.5 percent.
Media Matters goes on to explain Todd’s reasoning, “that Democrats would ‘have to legislate in a way that they know Bush will sign things,’ and by passing immigration reform, minimum wage, and ‘some health care stuff that Democrats want to get through,’ Bush ‘is going to sit there, he’s going to veto something every once in a while, and it’s going to remind people of the power of the presidency. I think it’s going to make him--I think it’s going to make him more relevant domestically and might rescue his legacy in these last two years a little bit.”

Gee, that didn’t quite work out, did it? In fact, Todd was so wrong that Media Matters wonders whether NBC News shouldn’t question his judgment. Don’t hold your breath …

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