Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong

Given the surprise announcements this week that U.S. Senators Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota are retiring, and word that Colorado Governor Bill Ritter won’t seek a second term, it’s not altogether unexpected that America’s political media would fall back on a simplistic story line that “Democrats are dropping like flies.” However, as The Washington Monthly’s Steve Benen points out, that meme--which Republicans would love to see take hold--is in no way correct.

Quick quiz: which party has more Senate retirements so far this campaign cycle, Democrats or Republicans? Follow-up question: which party has more House retirements so far this campaign cycle, Democrats or Republicans?

If Dems are “dropping like flies,” the answer should be obvious. But it’s not--in both chambers, Republican retirements, at least for now, outnumber Democratic retirements.

In the House, 14 GOP incumbents have decided not to seek re-election, while 10 Democratic incumbents have made the same announcement. Does this mean Republicans are “dropping like flies”?

In the Senate, six Republican incumbents have decided not to seek re-election, while two Democratic incumbents have made the same announcement. Is this evidence of a mass Democratic exodus?

Among governors, several incumbents in both parties are term-limited and prevented from running again, but only three Democrats who can seek re-election--Parkinson in Kansas, Doyle in Wisconsin, and Ritter in Colorado--have chosen not to. For Republicans, the number is four--Douglas in Vermont, Rell in Connecticut, Crist in Florida, and Pawlenty in Minnesota. (Update: the GOP number is five if we include Palin in Alaska.)

So, to review, Republican retirements outnumber Democratic retirements in the House, in the Senate, and among governors. The preferred Republican/media meme of the day doesn’t match up well against reality.

We can hope for a smarter press, but can’t guarantee it.

READ MORE: “Democrats Aren’t Dead Yet,” by Mike Madden (Salon); “DSCC’s Menendez: Democrats Are ‘Absolutely Not’ Dropping Like Flies,” by Sam Stein (Huffington Post).