Clinton’s Bet for 2012

This chunk of an interview with former President Bill Clinton comes from the February 2012 edition of Esquire magazine. The interviewers are Charles P. Pierce and Mark Warren.

ESQUIRE: Who do you think the next president will be?

CLINTON: I think Barack Obama will be the next president. I think he will win. Because I think that whatever feelings the American people have about their own conditions and however much they may wish he had moved more quickly, I think that they will conclude that it takes a long time to get out of the kind of economic distress we were in and that his direction and policies are more likely to move us out of that than if they give the White House and the Congress to a party that will give them more of what they just had.

I think that the rapid decrease in popularity of the Republican governors in places like Florida and Ohio and Wisconsin will help him.

It shows you how inexact the voting process is, and how people vote for candidates based on some fleeting rhetorical impression or their sense of the connection between that election and their own circumstances, rather than listening to what candidates actually say they intend to do. Because every one of those governors is just doing what they said they were gonna do.

But I think that the president will win. He’ll be able to talk about the difference in the auto industry between when he took office and the way it is now. I think he’ll be able to talk about much more progress in certain sectors of the economy, and he’s going to have a very strong national-security record to run on, so he won’t be vulnerable there. In fact, the Republican may be more vulnerable than he is there. So even though the conditions of the country are difficult, I expect him to win. And I also think, based on what happened in 2008, that once he gets an opponent in the general election, I think except for Fox and the conservative outlets, the media will tilt back toward him. The coverage won’t be as anodyne and evenhanded as it has been.

You’ll find the complete Esquire exchange here.