Okay, get that limb ready, I’m going to take a walk out onto it with my crystal ball balanced in hand.Click here to read all of The Reaction’s prognostications.
While I am convinced that President Barack Obama will win a second term in the White House, I remain somewhat less confident of it than, say, Nate Silver. Nonetheless, I’m going to predict that Obama captures 303 Electoral College votes, winning the majority of this year’s swing states, including Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia. Romney will probably win both North Carolina and Florida. The popular vote spread is likely to be quite a bit closer; I say Obama scores 50.4 percent to Romney’s 47 percent.
What will be interesting is to see how quickly Republicans turn on each other after the TV networks start projecting an Obama win. GOP pundits will be quick to blame Hurricane Sandy for Romney’s loss, because it’s easier than acknowledging that Americans simply don’t like the short-sighted, every-man-for-himself policies Republicans are trying to peddle. Tea partiers, on the other hand, will be out for blood; what venom they don’t expend on attacking the president, they’ll direct at the “Republican establishment,” which assured them that a “true believer” like Rick Santorum couldn’t beat Obama but a “weather vane” like Romney could.
In the end, the Republican brand will be further tarnished.
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
Fingers Crossed. Fired Up. Ready to Go!
As we get ready for what could turn out to be a very long and unsatisfying Election Day here in the United States, the politics-oriented blog The Reaction has posted predictions by a number of its contributors--including me--of how tonight’s most prominent races will conclude. Here is what I wrote: