If Republicans take the House, there’s also a good chance they’ll lose it right back in 2012. If they do win the House, it will be by a small margin. And in 2012, they’ll probably suffer significant losses. First of all, provided the economy looks better in two years than it does today, chances are that President Obama is going to romp to re-election--like Ronald Reagan did in 1984 after suffering losses in 1982, and like Bill Clinton did in 1996 after suffering losses in 1994--and if he does, there will be some coattails in congressional races. Second, the Republican class of 2010 is going to include a lot of inexperienced, inept, and just plain crazy people who are going to be vulnerable to challenge when they have to run in a year not characterized by 9.6 percent unemployment and a general mood of rage.Read the full essay here.
Nothing is certain in politics, and the next two years could turn into a nightmare. But it’s more likely it’ll be mildly unpleasant, not catastrophic. The country will survive, just as it has survived before. And before you know it, the pendulum will swing back.
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
This Might Be Reassuring Just Now
A short excerpt from Paul Waldman’s new article at the American Prospect Web site: